IMPACT OF U.S- IRAN WAR ON AFRICA’S OIL AND GAS SUPPLY

Summary

The U.S.–Iran war that began 28 February 2026 has triggered the largest-ever oil supply disruption according to the IEA, with Brent crude spiking to $119/barrel and stabilising around $102–108/barrel, creating acute stress across Africa's import-dependent energy supply chains.

The Strait of Hormuz through which ~20 million b/d (20% of global petroleum liquids and 20% of global LNG) flows has been largely halted, eliminating an estimated 500 million barrels from global supply over the first 25 days of conflict.

Africa faces a structural double vulnerability: the continent imports 56% of its refined petroleum products (AFREC, 2022), operates refineries at just 55% utilisation (vs. 75–80% global average), and spends an estimated $30 billion annually on fuel imports.

Oil-importing nations (e.g., South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia) face fuel shortages, inflation spikes, and currency depreciation; oil exporters (Nigeria, Angola) gain short-term revenue windfalls but remain exposed to oil price volatility and production constraints.

Strategic action is required immediately: African governments must activate petroleum reserves, accelerate regional refining investments, and diversify supply routes away from Middle East dependency.