Upstream & Gas Systems

MONETISATION PATHWAYS FOR MOZAMBIQUE'S ROVUMA BASIN

ThemeUpstream & Gas Systems

Country / RegionMozambique

Year2026

AuthorsOpetunde Diaro

Summary

Mozambique's Rovuma Basin has re-entered the front rank of global LNG supply investment following the January 2026 restart of TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG (Area 1) project and ExxonMobil's move toward a final investment decision on the Rovuma LNG (Area 4) project, now targeted for the second half of 2026. Combined with Eni's operating Coral Sul FLNG facility and the sanctioned Coral Norte expansion, the basin's proven and probable resource base of roughly 180 Tcf underpins a potential ~31 Mtpa of sanctioned or near-sanctioned LNG export capacity, positioning Mozambique to become Africa's third-largest LNG exporter behind Nigeria and Algeria, and a top-ten global supplier by the early 2030s.
This note provides a comparative commercial and strategic assessment of the monetisation pathways available to Mozambique and its resource partners: large-scale LNG exports, floating LNG, domestic gas-to-power, fertiliser and ammonia production, methanol, gas-to-liquids (GTL), and regional pipeline exports. It benchmarks these pathways on CAPEX intensity, OPEX, NPV, IRR and payback, and situates the analysis within a fast-moving global gas market context, a live security environment in Cabo Delgado, and an evolving energy transition and methane-regulation landscape.

Key Messages

LNG investment momentum is returning, with Mozambique LNG restarting in January 2026 and Rovuma LNG targeting FID in H2 2026.
The basin has the resource scale to support major export growth, with roughly 180 Tcf of proven and probable resources underpinning around 31 mtpa of sanctioned or near-sanctioned LNG capacity.
FLNG and large-scale LNG provide the core monetisation pathways, with Coral Sul already operating and Coral Norte expanding Mozambique’s floating LNG capacity.

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