SUSTAINING NIGERIA'S LNG DOMINANCE AMID RISING AFRICAN COMPETITION: STRATEGIC RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Summary

Nigeria remains Africa’s largest LNG exporter, shipping 14.78 Mt in 2025 versus Algeria’s 9.70 Mt and Africa-wide exports of 39.77 Mt. Its lead is still anchored in scale, legacy infrastructure and Atlantic Basin location, but not in operational resilience: NLNG’s utilization was only 66.6% in 2025, far below what Nigeria’s 22.2 mtpa installed capacity should permit. Nigeria’s strategic problem is therefore above-ground, not subsurface: feedgas reliability, pipeline security, expansion execution and carbon competitiveness now matter more than reserve size alone.
The competitive challenge is intensifying. Mozambique has only 3.4 mtpa operating today, but it holds ~100 Tcf of gas and an 18 mtpa Rovuma design plus the 12.88 mtpa Mozambique LNG project if security and financing risks ease. Mauritania/Senegal entered the market in 2025 with first GTA cargoes, while Tanzania is still trying to close a $42 billion LNG framework that could underpin a 15 mtpa export platform in the next decade. Algeria remains a formidable incumbent with 25.5 mtpa nameplate capacity, even if ageing assets and lower utilization are constraining exports.
Nigeria’s near-term opportunity is favorable: Europe still needs flexible LNG despite structural demand erosion, Iberia is already materially exposed to Nigerian supply, and Asian demand growth led by China and India keeps portfolio diversification valuable. But the next supply wave from the United States and Qatar is the dominant external threat. The IEA expects ~300 bcm/yr of new liquefaction capacity by 2030, with the United States and Qatar accounting for roughly 70% of the increase; price competition will intensify and buyers will become more selective on emissions, reliability and contract flexibility.